The luxury watch secondary market is experiencing a significant correction throughout 2025, with many models that soared during the 2021 and 2022 speculative frenzy now depreciating 20% to 40% from peak values. This downturn is separating genuine investment-grade timepieces from speculative bubble casualties that rode hype cycles driven by social media rather than fundamental collector demand or horological merit.
Current market data suggest the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak is delivering consistent profits through exceptional value retention on standard steel models, genuine appreciation on discontinued references and complications, plus stable liquidity across global secondary markets.
Many Royal Oak references are outperforming comparable Rolex sport models on a risk-adjusted basis while remaining accessible without multi-year waitlists or dealer allocation games, making the collection a legitimate investment-grade timepiece for collectors seeking financial returns rather than Instagram validation or status signaling.
Table of Contents
Key Takeaways & The 5Ws
- The luxury watch secondary market is correcting hard in 2025, with many hype-driven models down 20%–40% from 2021–2022 peaks, but the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak has been comparatively resilient.
- Even amid a downturn and an estimated 7%–8% annual decline in the AP Index, Royal Oak models still produced roughly 11.7% annualized returns from 2019–2024, slightly ahead of global equities across the same window.
- Core steel Royal Oak references commonly trade 25%–50% above MSRP, with icons such as the 15202ST Jumbo Extra-Thin and 15510ST holding strong premiums and showing longer-term appreciation rather than reverting to retail.
- Relatively tight global pricing (often only 5%–8% variation across the US, Europe, and Asia) suggests broad collector demand and limited arbitrage, unlike some Rolex sports models where larger regional gaps can signal more speculative flows.
- Not every Royal Oak is investment-grade: core steel, iconic sizes, and key chronographs generally retain value best, while some Royal Oak Offshore references (for example, 26470ST trading around 52% of retail) show that the brand name alone does not guarantee performance.
- Who is this about?
- Serious collectors and higher-net-worth investors using watches as alternative assets, alongside Audemars Piguet and the global resale ecosystem (Chrono24, WatchCharts, dealers, and auction houses) that sets real-world secondary pricing.
- What is happening?
- The Audemars Piguet Royal Oak line—especially steel Jumbo, 41mm selfwinding, and key chronograph references—continues to behave like investment-grade luxury sports watches with persistent above-retail pricing, even as the broader market corrects.
- When is the performance measured?
- Across 2019–2024, capturing the 2021–2022 speculative peak and the 2023–2025 correction, showing the Royal Oak has held value and delivered positive annualized returns through a full market cycle.
- Where is the strength visible?
- Across global secondary markets in the US, Europe, and Asia, where Royal Oak pricing has remained comparatively uniform and consistently above MSRP, pointing to broad-based demand rather than a single-region hype bubble.
- Why has it held up?
- Because the Royal Oak combines haute horlogerie credibility (in-house calibers and complications), iconic Genta design, controlled production, and genuine collector demand, helping many references outperform hype-dependent models whose values fell sharply after the bubble.
How Is The Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Performing In The 2025 Luxury Watch Market?
While many hype-driven luxury watches are down 20–40% from 2021–2022 peaks, core Audemars Piguet Royal Oak models have been far more resilient, still trading well above MSRP and delivering roughly low-double-digit annualized returns over the 2019–2024 cycle. The Royal Oak behaves more like an investment-grade asset than a bubble casualty, with global pricing that stays relatively tight across regions.
The broader luxury watch market has experienced substantial turbulence since reaching speculative peaks in 2022, creating an environment where genuine investment quality reveals itself through relative performance during downturns rather than absolute gains during bubble conditions.
The WatchCharts Overall Market Index fell approximately 5.1% over the past year, reflecting widespread correction across luxury timepieces as speculative demand evaporated and buyers returned to fundamental value assessments. Within this challenging environment, the Audemars Piguet Index declined around 7% to 8% year-on-year as of early 2024, suggesting the brand hasn’t escaped broader market pressures but has demonstrated resilience compared to many competitors.
However, Business Insider’s analysis of WatchCharts data spanning 2019 through 2024 found that Audemars Piguet delivered approximately 11.7% annualized returns over this five-year period, marginally ahead of global stock markets generating roughly 9.6% returns across the same timeframe.
This performance occurred despite the recent correction, demonstrating that quality Royal Oak references functioned as legitimate alternative investments capable of competing with traditional financial assets rather than purely consumption purchases that happened to appreciate during unique market conditions.
While many Rolex sport models that commanded massive premiums during 2021 and 2022 have fallen back toward or even below manufacturer’s suggested retail prices, core Royal Oak steel references continue trading 25% to 50% above official retail in most markets. This divergence suggests that Royal Oak demand reflects genuine collector appreciation for the integrated bracelet design, in-house movement capabilities, and relative scarcity compared to Rolex production volumes, rather than temporary hype vulnerable to rapid reversal when market sentiment shifts.
Geographic price consistency across major international markets provides additional evidence distinguishing authentic collector demand from speculative arbitrage opportunities. Unlike Rolex sport models where price disparities of 20% to 30% commonly exist between United States, European, and Asian markets creating profitable gray market flows, Royal Oak secondary pricing remains relatively uniform globally with variance typically limited to 5% to 8% between regions.
Analysis across Chrono24, Bob’s Watches, and authorized dealer networks confirms this consistency, indicating that Royal Oak values rest on fundamental demand from collectors who genuinely want to own and wear these pieces rather than flippers seeking quick profits from geographic arbitrage or temporary supply constraints.
The brand’s haute horlogerie positioning creates a natural floor under Royal Oak values that many competing luxury sports watches lack. Audemars Piguet maintains genuine manufacture credentials with complex in-house movements, demonstrating technical capabilities that extend well beyond simple time-only functions into perpetual calendars, minute repeaters, and proprietary tourbillon designs.
This technical legitimacy attracts serious collectors who appreciate mechanical artistry and are willing to pay premiums for brands with century-plus histories of horological innovation, creating a collector base less susceptible to fashion cycles or social media trends that drive temporary demand spikes followed by catastrophic corrections.
Which Royal Oak References Deliver The Best Investment Returns?
Discontinued and core steel Royal Oaks—such as the 15202ST Jumbo Extra-Thin, 15510ST selfwinding, and key 41 mm chronographs—tend to command the strongest premiums over retail and deepest liquidity, making them the most investable. By contrast, some Royal Oak Offshore variants trade well below MSRP, proving that not every reference with the Royal Oak name is automatically investment-grade.
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Models: Investment Performance vs MSRP
| Royal Oak Model (Reference) | Avg. Appreciation / Depreciation vs MSRP |
|---|---|
| Royal Oak Jumbo Extra-Thin (15202ST) | +239.7% |
| Royal Oak Selfwinding 41mm (15400ST) | +76.8% |
| Royal Oak Selfwinding 41mm (15510ST) | +37.2% |
| Royal Oak Selfwinding 37mm (15450ST) | +30.2% |
| Royal Oak Selfwinding 41mm (15500ST) | +22.2% |
| Royal Oak Chronograph 41mm (26240ST) | +15.7% |
| Royal Oak Chronograph 41mm (26331ST) | +9.7% |
| Royal Oak Perpetual Calendar 41mm (26574ST) | −12.4% |
The 15202ST Jumbo Extra-Thin represents the purest investment play within the Royal Oak collection for collectors prioritizing appreciation over wearability or modern conveniences.
The 39mm case measures just 8.1mm in thickness, housing the ultra-thin Calibre 2121 movement that sits closest to the original 1972 Gérald Genta design intent. Production ceased in 2022, creating supply constraint that supports the reference holding 85% to 95% of retail value during market correction.
Original retail pricing around 2012 sat at approximately $20,500 according to WatchCharts historical data, while estimated pre-owned pricing as of December 18, 2025 reaches $57,350, representing roughly 240% of original manufacturer’s suggested retail price or nearly 180% appreciation over list.
The 15510ST representing current standard steel production offers the most accessible entry point for investors seeking predictable resale characteristics without timing discontinuation cycles or hunting vintage examples. The 41mm case houses the Calibre 4302 manufacture movement providing 70-hour power reserve, demonstrating Audemars Piguet’s in-house technical capabilities beyond simple time-only functions.
This reference retailed at $30,000 as of June 2024, yet commands an estimated global pre-owned price of $45,224 as of December 18, 2025, representing approximately 150% of manufacturer’s suggested retail price or a remarkable 50% premium over list during a period when most luxury watches trade below retail.
Chrono24 marketplace listings show 15510ST pieces typically offered around €38,000 to €46,000, roughly $41,000 to $50,000 depending on production year and condition. As the most liquid Royal Oak reference with consistent above-retail trading, the 15510ST provides investors confidence that exit liquidity exists when portfolio rebalancing or capital needs require selling.
At the same time, the Royal Oak Chronograph 26240ST delivers strong investment metrics for collectors seeking integrated chronograph complications without venturing into six-figure perpetual calendars or tourbillons.
The 41mm steel case houses integrated chronograph movement retailing at $40,500 as of mid-2024 per WatchCharts. Estimated pre-owned pricing reaches $51,041 as of December 2025, representing approximately 126% of manufacturer’s suggested retail price or roughly 26% premium over list.
Marketplace asks fall around €43,000 to €55,000 for 26240ST pieces, demonstrating consistent mild above-retail trading that covers transaction costs and provides positive returns for patient holders who understand that complications generally require longer holding periods to achieve optimal exit pricing.
The counterexample worth noting involves the Royal Oak Offshore 26470ST, which demonstrates that not all Royal Oak references deliver investment-grade returns simply by carrying the Audemars Piguet name. This larger, sportier variant retailed at $37,100 in 2019 but commands estimated pre-owned pricing of just $19,255 as of December 2025 according to Chrono24, representing approximately 52% retention or nearly 50% value destruction.
For watch collectors evaluating whether Royal Oak references deserve allocation within diversified portfolios, the data supports cautious optimism focused on core steel references with iconic status, discontinued models creating supply constraints, and high complications demonstrating technical capabilities that justify premium pricing.
FAQ
Which Audemars Piguet Royal Oak holds value best?
The Royal Oak 15202ST Jumbo Extra-Thin holds 85% to 95% of retail value and trades around $57,350 despite $20,500 original retail, representing nearly 180% appreciation. The current 15510ST trades at 150% of $30,000 retail. Discontinued references and perpetual calendars show strongest retention during market corrections.
Is the Royal Oak a better investment than Rolex?
Audemars Piguet delivered 11.7% annualized returns from 2019 to 2024 versus global stocks at 9.6%. Many Royal Oak steel references trade 25% to 50% above retail while comparable Rolex sport models approach or fall below manufacturer’s suggested retail price, suggesting better risk-adjusted returns currently.
Do Royal Oak watches appreciate over time?
Yes, for select references. The 15202ST appreciated from $20,500 original retail to $57,350 current market value. Vintage 5402ST examples from 1970s reach $60,000 to $100,000 plus, with exceptional provenance pieces selling over $1 million at auction. Standard production models typically hold 70% to 95% of retail rather than appreciating.
What is the most affordable investment-grade Royal Oak?
The discontinued 15500ST offers accessible entry at approximately $38,696 pre-owned, trading 39% above original $27,800 retail. The current 15510ST provides best liquidity at $45,224 market value versus $30,000 retail, ensuring exit options when selling becomes necessary without desperate discounting or extended holding periods.
