Swiss watch collectors are moving fast—and for good reason. A newly imposed 39% U.S. tariff on Swiss-made watches has sent a ripple through the luxury watch market, especially among buyers in the United States. While watch prices were already trending upward due to supply constraints and high demand, this policy change has accelerated a sense of urgency.
For seasoned collectors and new investors alike, this isn’t just about avoiding higher prices—it’s about protecting upside. When a Rolex Submariner or Patek Philippe Nautilus is expected to cost thousands more next quarter, buying now becomes a strategic move.
The secondary market is already showing signs of tightening. Some retailers are reporting spikes in inquiries, and private sales platforms are seeing more cash-ready buyers trying to beat the pricing curve.
Beyond tariffs, other factors are fueling the trend. The Swiss franc has strengthened in recent months, pushing up import costs for buyers outside Europe.
At the same time, inflationary pressures have driven up the cost of raw materials like gold and steel—both central to premium watchmaking. As margins shrink, watchmakers are almost certainly going to pass those increases on to consumers.
Jean-Claude Biver, legendary former CEO of Hublot and head of LVMH’s watch division, once noted, “Price is only an issue in the absence of value.”
For collectors who view luxury timepieces not just as accessories but as appreciating assets, this may be one of the last windows to buy before price hikes reset the market.
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Why Swiss Watch Prices Are Expected to Rise Soon
There’s no mystery behind the sudden urgency among watch collectors—prices are going up, and the signals are hard to ignore. The biggest driver is the 39% tariff the United States has imposed on imported Swiss watches. This measure, implemented in mid-2025, is part of a broader trade dispute but has landed squarely on one of the world’s most collectible luxury goods.
What does a 39% tariff mean in practice? A watch that retailed for $10,000 before duties could now cost nearly $14,000 after it hits the U.S. market. That extra cost isn’t coming from retailers—it’s being baked into the import process.
While some authorized dealers are absorbing part of the increase temporarily, most will adjust prices as new stock arrives. In some cases, we’re already seeing that adjustment in real time.
Currency pressure adds another layer. The Swiss franc has gained roughly 4–5% against the U.S. dollar since early 2024, which makes Swiss exports more expensive for foreign buyers. This directly affects watchmakers’ pricing power and squeezes margins.
Brands like Rolex, Omega, and Patek Philippe, known for strict pricing control, may be forced to revise prices to maintain profitability outside Europe.
Raw material costs are also rising. Gold is trading above $2,400 per ounce in 2025, a sharp increase from its 2023 average of $1,950. Stainless steel, which might seem more stable, has also seen a price bump due to higher energy and transport costs in Europe. Since these materials are central to luxury timepieces, particularly in sport models, production is getting more expensive.
The luxury retail environment is also shifting. Inflation across Europe and the U.S. has affected labor and logistics, tightening margins across the supply chain. As a result, brands are expected to adjust MSRPs to reflect these new realities.
We’ve already seen subtle increases from some Richemont brands, and others are likely to follow suit by the end of Q4 2025.
Thierry Stern, president of Patek Philippe, emphasized in a recent interview: “We don’t chase demand; we focus on lasting value. But when costs rise significantly, you can’t ignore them forever.”
That’s the key. Even if the brands aren’t openly chasing profits, they still need to protect the integrity of their business model—and their pricing structures.
Altogether, tariffs, currency strength, raw material hikes, and a more expensive supply chain make it clear: Swiss watch prices are heading up. For investors and collectors, waiting could mean paying more for the same watch—or missing out altogether if supply gets snapped up early.
Which Swiss Watch Brands Are Most Affected
When a 39% import tariff hits Swiss watches, not every brand feels the impact equally. Some brands are better positioned to absorb the shock, while others are more directly exposed—especially those with large U.S. customer bases or thin distribution margins.
Rolex is arguably the most affected. As the world’s most recognized luxury watch brand, Rolex commands strong demand across every continent—but particularly in the U.S., which is one of its largest markets. A steel Rolex Daytona or Submariner that once retailed for $10,000–$13,000 may now hover closer to $14,000–$18,000 after duties and currency effects.
Even with that price bump, demand remains intense, and waitlists haven’t shrunk—if anything, they’ve grown as pre-hike buyers rush in.
Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet are in a similar boat. Both brands rely on exclusivity and limited production to maintain value, which gives them leverage in passing on higher costs. For example, the Patek Nautilus 5811, already trading at a premium above retail, could see its grey market prices rise even further as access tightens. These watches are already considered blue-chip assets in the collector world, and tariffs only reinforce their scarcity appeal.
Omega, part of the Swatch Group, is also highly exposed due to its wide presence in the U.S. and relatively moderate price points compared to ultra-luxury brands. While a $6,000 Speedmaster might not face the same resale pressure as a $100,000 Royal Oak, Omega’s margin for absorbing extra costs is much slimmer. Price increases in the 5–10% range are already being seen at some authorized dealers.
Brands under the Richemont umbrella—like IWC, Jaeger-LeCoultre, and Vacheron Constantin—are facing a similar equation. With strong reputations and global footprints, they’re likely to roll out subtle price hikes over time rather than abrupt jumps.
A steel IWC Pilot or Portugieser, for example, might go from $8,000 to $10,000 quietly through minor annual adjustments.
Then there are independent brands like H. Moser & Cie, Laurent Ferrier, or F.P. Journe. While they don’t rely on large U.S. volumes, their handcrafted nature means higher production costs per unit. They may not be directly hit by large-scale tariffs, but they’re certainly affected by currency shifts and rising material prices.
For collectors of rare independents, that means higher entry prices down the line—but also more upside potential if supply stays tight.
How Collectors Are Responding Before Prices Go Up
Collectors aren’t waiting around. Many are moving quickly to secure high-demand models before prices reflect the full impact of tariffs and rising production costs. In the weeks following the U.S. tariff announcement, several authorized dealers reported a noticeable uptick in inquiries—especially for staple pieces like the Rolex Submariner, Patek Philippe Nautilus, and Omega Speedmaster.
What’s driving the rush isn’t panic—it’s strategy. Collectors who understand the market know that buying ahead of pricing resets can lead to immediate value preservation or even upside. A buyer who secures a Rolex GMT-Master II at pre-tariff pricing may be sitting on a piece worth 10%–15% more just months later, purely due to macroeconomic pressure and price reindexing.
Platforms like Chrono24 and WatchBox are already seeing tighter listings on flagship Swiss models. Some sellers have pulled inventory in anticipation of being able to relist at higher prices later this year. This behavior mirrors what happened during previous VAT hikes in Europe, when collectors snapped up inventory just before taxes took effect.
It’s not just new buyers entering the market—seasoned investors are doubling down. Many are using this moment to rebalance their collections, trading mid-tier pieces for more timeless, high-demand references. The logic is simple: if tariffs compress overall buying power, better to hold fewer but more liquid watches that can retain or grow in value, even under pressure.
There’s also a regional play at work. European and Middle Eastern collectors, not directly affected by U.S. tariffs, are seeing an opportunity to arbitrage value.
By purchasing now and selling into U.S. markets later, some are betting on wider price gaps and increased demand from American buyers who waited too long.
As luxury watch dealer Eric Wind put it, “Smart collectors don’t just buy watches—they buy timing. And right now, timing matters more than ever.”
This sentiment is spreading across private forums and dealer networks where the consensus is clear: the window to buy at current prices is closing fast.
What This Means for Watch Investors in 2025 and Beyond
For serious watch investors, 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year. Rising tariffs, currency shifts, and cost pressures are creating the kind of pricing environment that typically favors early movers. But this moment isn’t just about beating price increases—it’s about positioning for long-term value in a market that’s becoming more selective and more global.
Watch investments have always thrived on scarcity and brand equity, and both are becoming harder to secure. Production remains constrained among top-tier brands like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet—not by accident, but by design.
These companies know that controlled output maintains desirability, especially during times of inflation and economic uncertainty. When supply is limited and costs are rising, prices almost never go down.
At the same time, the collector demographic is broadening. Younger, globally mobile investors are entering the market—not just for passion, but for portfolio diversification.
According to a 2025 Deloitte report, nearly 40% of luxury watch buyers under 40 consider resale value before purchasing. This is a sign that more people now view watches as part of a balanced alternative asset strategy, alongside fine wine, art, and even digital collectibles.
What’s also shifting is how people buy. Global platforms like Chrono24, WatchBox, and even Sotheby’s are seeing more cross-border transactions, especially from U.S. buyers looking to source watches from Europe before pricing resets. This international liquidity is helping watches hold or grow in value, even in the face of higher costs.
In short, the fundamentals are strengthening—not weakening. As Paul Boutros, head of watches at Phillips, recently said: “Every time macro pressures hit the watch industry, it filters out the noise and brings the focus back to quality and long-term value.”
Investors are taking that to heart.
Looking ahead, the watches most likely to perform well will be those with three things: brand credibility, limited availability, and timeless appeal.
If you’re holding—or thinking about buying—a Rolex Submariner, a Patek Nautilus, or an F.P. Journe Chronomètre Bleu, odds are you’re not just wearing a beautiful timepiece—you’re holding a resilient asset.
Potential Risks and Market Uncertainties Ahead
While the current environment is fueling urgency and optimism among collectors, smart investors are also weighing the risks. One of the biggest wildcards is how long the tariffs will remain in place. If trade negotiations between Switzerland and the U.S. shift, or if tariffs are eventually rolled back, some of the urgency driving the market today could fade—at least in terms of immediate price pressure.
There’s also the risk of overpaying in the short term. As prices spike in response to tariffs and cost increases, some buyers may rush in without carefully considering long-term fundamentals. Not every Swiss watch will appreciate equally.
Models with less brand equity, high production volume, or weak resale history may struggle to hold value once the initial hype dies down.
Market saturation is another concern. If too many investors treat watches purely as financial instruments—rather than passion assets—the market could see volatility. We’ve seen this happen in other luxury sectors, from sneakers to NFTs, where excessive speculation eventually led to price corrections. Watches have stronger fundamentals, but the risk still exists.
Currency fluctuations could also throw off international price comparisons. For example, a weaker Swiss franc might offset part of the tariff burden for U.S. buyers—but a sudden rebound could push prices even higher. That kind of volatility can make timing difficult, especially for cross-border buyers using secondary platforms.
And finally, macroeconomic conditions still matter. If broader global uncertainty—whether from inflation, geopolitical tensions, or interest rate shocks—shakes consumer confidence, even luxury watch demand could soften. In such a case, liquidity could dry up in certain segments of the market, particularly for mid-tier or less iconic models.
