Bordeaux’s En Primeur system, once regarded as the cornerstone of fine wine investing, is facing a crisis of confidence that threatens its relevance in modern wine markets.
Commentary by analysts describes the 2023 campaign as potentially marking the “twilight” of a system that has dominated wine investment for generations. This isn’t hyperbole from frustrated collectors but recognition that something fundamental has broken in the relationship between Bordeaux châteaux and the buyers who traditionally supported their futures market.
The 2023 campaign revealed just how much trust has eroded, as Decanter reports that many châteaux offered significant price cuts versus 2022 releases, with Mouton Rothschild reducing prices by more than 30% and Angélus cutting over 25%.
These aren’t minor adjustments for vintage variation but substantial reductions signaling that producers recognize they’ve lost the market. For wine investors who viewed Bordeaux futures as reliable opportunities to secure allocation while potentially capturing appreciation before delivery, the current environment represents a fundamental reassessment of whether the En Primeur system still serves their interests.
Table of Contents
6 Key Takeaways
Navigate between overview and detailed analysis6 Key Takeaways
- Bordeaux’s 2023 En Primeur campaign exposed deep structural issues in the futures market, with price cuts exceeding 30% at top estates like Mouton Rothschild and Angélus signaling a loss of investor confidence.
- Liv-ex data shows Bordeaux’s secondary-market share falling from 60% in 2018 to 40% in 2023, reflecting a broader reallocation of collector capital toward Burgundy, Champagne, and New World wines.
- Price reductions averaging 22.5% across major châteaux failed to reignite demand, as collectors recognized that many wines now trade at or below En Primeur release prices once they reach the physical market.
- The system’s original appeal—early access and potential appreciation—has eroded amid opaque pricing, forced bundling, and diminishing financial advantage for participants.
- Analysts describe the 2023 campaign as a “twilight moment,” suggesting Bordeaux must embrace transparency, realistic pricing, and direct engagement with collectors to restore credibility.
- Without structural reform, En Primeur risks becoming a legacy mechanism disconnected from modern fine-wine investment behavior.
The Five Ws Analysis
- Who:
- Bordeaux’s leading châteaux, global wine merchants, and collectors who traditionally relied on the En Primeur system for allocation and investment.
- What:
- A market correction defined by double-digit price cuts, falling trade share, and waning investor participation.
- When:
- Accelerating since 2022 and culminating in the underperforming 2023 campaign that exposed the system’s fragility.
- Where:
- Focused on Bordeaux’s Left and Right Bank estates, but with global implications for fine-wine investors across Europe, the U.S., and Asia.
- Why:
- Years of overpricing, speculative flipping, and lack of transparency eroded trust, prompting collectors to favor regions and models that offer clearer value and authenticity.
What Went Wrong With Bordeaux’s 2023 En Primeur Campaign
The campaign’s performance can only be described as disappointing despite the price reductions meant to stimulate demand. The Drinks Business characterized the 2023 effort as “lacklustre” or “faltering,” with slow sales that persisted even after châteaux cut prices aggressively.
This sluggish uptake tells you that the problem extends beyond simple pricing to fundamental questions about the value proposition of buying wine futures rather than waiting for physical market availability.
The allocation dynamics shifted in ways that removed some of the system’s traditional appeal, with Liv-ex noting that some châteaux refrained from aggressive bundling or tying offers, meaning buyers could no longer guarantee access to blue-chip wines by purchasing lesser labels from the same estate.
This departure from past practice might seem pro-consumer, but it actually signals weakened demand because châteaux only bundle allocations when they can use scarcity of top wines to move inventory of less desirable ones.
When bundling disappears, it means even the flagship wines aren’t selling out.
The pricing cuts were dramatic by Bordeaux standards, though many observers argued they didn’t go far enough. Liv-ex data shows that on average, 2023 release prices came in roughly 22.5% lower than 2022 across many estates, a reduction that would seem substantial in most markets.
However, when you examine specific châteaux, the discounting becomes even more pronounced. Barron’s reports that Lafite Rothschild’s 2023 futures were more than 31% off the prior year, while Haut-Brion dropped approximately 39.5%. Liv-ex tracking shows Château La Conseillante cutting roughly 32.4% versus 2022, from €222 down to €150, and Château Montrose offering 2023 at £1,428 per case, about 18.2% below its 2022 opening of £1,746.
For investors trying to understand what these price cuts mean, consider that Bordeaux châteaux typically adjust pricing by single-digit percentages between vintages based on quality and market conditions.
Cuts exceeding 30% suggest either the 2022 vintage was dramatically overpriced, the 2023 vintage quality doesn’t justify comparable pricing, or market conditions have deteriorated so severely that châteaux need to slash prices just to generate minimal sales. None of these explanations inspire confidence in the system’s pricing integrity.
The Data Behind the Decline
Liv-ex’s “In the Balance” report provides the clearest quantification of Bordeaux’s market deterioration. Since February 2022, the Bordeaux 500 Index has declined 10.3%, while the Fine Wine 50 Index tracking First Growths has fallen 15.3%.
Moreover, Liv-ex shows that Bordeaux’s share of trade by value on the secondary market fell to 40% in 2023 versus roughly 60% in 2018. This five-year contraction demonstrates that when collectors and investors have capital to deploy in fine wine, they’re increasingly directing it toward regions other than Bordeaux.
For an investment market, losing 20 percentage points of share in five years represents existential threat rather than cyclical fluctuation.
The négociant expectations captured in Liv-ex’s survey predicted that ex-négociant release prices in 2023 would average 22.2% lower than the prior year, closely matching the actual 22.5% average decline. This alignment between expectations and outcomes suggests the market has reset its valuation framework for Bordeaux futures, with both sellers and buyers acknowledging that previous pricing levels were unsustainable.
Individual château releases documented by Decanter and Liv-ex show the repricing in granular detail. Haut-Brion 2023 released at €312 per bottle ex-négociant, down roughly 39.5% versus 2022. Château Cantemerle came in at €16.80 ex-négociant, 19% lower than 2022’s €20.75. Château Ausone priced at €432 ex-négociant, down 23.5% versus 2022’s €565.
Hospitality Net analysis argues that fair 2023 prices should have been approximately 25% to 30% below 2022 to align with actual market conditions, while the wines that released averaged about 23.9% reductions.
This suggests that even after substantial cuts, many châteaux still priced above where independent analysis indicated fair value resided, which helps explain why sales remained sluggish despite the discounting.
Why Collectors Are Turning Away From En Primeur
The fundamental problem with Bordeaux’s En Primeur system has become its inability to deliver value for buyers. Liv-ex commentary notes that because many châteaux previously priced aggressively, buyers discovered too many wines entering the physical market at or below their en primeur release prices.
When futures offer no financial advantage over waiting for physical delivery and potentially lower pricing, the entire rationale for participating collapses. You’re essentially providing châteaux with interest-free financing for two years while accepting allocation and delivery risk in exchange for no economic benefit.
Market fatigue extends beyond pricing to the speculative behavior the system encourages. World of Fine Wine’s “twilight” analysis references how years of flipping futures, forced bundling, and pricing gimmicks have made collectors more cautious about participating.
When a system designed to help châteaux manage cash flow and reward loyal customers evolves into a speculative market dominated by flippers and allocation games, the original collectors who supported the system lose interest.
Competition from other regions has intensified as Bordeaux’s value proposition has weakened. The Liv-ex “In Balance” report cites Bordeaux’s shrinking trade share as evidence that Burgundy, Champagne, and top New World wines offer alternative investment stories with often more transparent pricing.
For collectors allocating capital across fine wine categories, Bordeaux’s combination of opaque pricing, inconsistent allocation policies, and poor recent performance makes it easy to direct funds elsewhere.
Can Bordeaux Regain the Trust of Collectors?
Some industry observers view 2023’s substantial price cuts as progress toward repairing the system. Liv-ex commentary describes the reductions as a “small step toward a healthier system,” though with important caveats that the cuts weren’t deep enough to fully resurrect confidence.
The Drinks Business characterized the campaign as “out of the ICU,” suggesting stabilization after years of decline but stopping short of declaring recovery.
The path forward requires more than just lower prices. Hospitality Net analysis stresses that Bordeaux needs realistic pricing that aligns futures with actual market value plus transparent allocation policies if it wants to recover credibility with serious collectors. The current system’s opacity around who receives allocations, at what prices, and under what conditions has bred resentment among buyers who feel they’re being manipulated rather than served.
Some châteaux are experimenting with structural changes that could improve the system’s integrity. World of Fine Wine and Liv-ex note various châteaux trying direct-to-consumer En Primeur sales, releasing smaller volumes, or emphasizing vintage narrative over hype. These experiments acknowledge that the traditional négociant-dominated distribution system may no longer serve producers’ interests if it means pricing and allocation decisions that alienate end buyers.
However, skepticism remains widespread among those closest to the market, with World of Fine Wine noting that wine writers and merchants believe unless the system fundamentally changes through less bundling, less overpricing, and better alignment between futures and secondary market pricing, trust will remain damaged.
