The fine wine market is finally showing signs of life after an extended, 36-month decline that left many collectors and investors wondering if the asset class had permanently lost its appeal. However, anyone expecting a dramatic V-shaped rebound will be disappointed by what the numbers show.
Recent gains across major wine indices are measured in decimals rather than double digits, pointing to stabilization rather than a full-blown bull market.
In practice, “recovery” currently means three consecutive months of positive movement, September, October, and November 2025 , following three full years of weakness. That is a genuine trend reversal, but the magnitude of gains remains modest and heavily concentrated in blue-chip labels, leaving mid-tier wines and younger vintages still under pressure.
This fragile improvement is unfolding against a challenging backdrop: global wine consumption has fallen to multi-decade lows, and demand for many discretionary luxury assets remains patchy. For fine wine investors, the key question is no longer “Has the market bottomed?” but “What kind of recovery is this and who actually benefits from it?”
Table of Contents
- After a prolonged 36-month decline, the fine wine market is entering a stabilization phase marked by three straight months of small index gains rather than a dramatic rebound.
- The Liv-ex 100 rose 0.9% in November 2025 and the Liv-ex 1000 gained 0.4%, trimming but not erasing their year-to-date losses.
- Recovery is narrowly concentrated in classic blue-chip labels — including Sassicaia, Giacomo Conterno, and Bruno Giacosa — while mid-tier wines and younger vintages continue to lag.
- The bid-to-offer ratio’s jump from 0.39 in July to 0.93 by October signals a meaningful shift in market psychology, with liquidity and buyer interest returning after a period of stagnation.
- For investors, this points to a slow, uneven recovery that favours selective allocations into established producers and historically resilient vintages rather than broad, index-level exposure.
- Who is this for?
- Fine wine investors, collectors, wealth managers, and professional fund managers who are navigating a post-correction stabilization phase in the fine wine market.
- What is happening?
- The global fine wine market is experiencing a tentative recovery after a 36-month downturn, with leading indices such as the Liv-ex 100 and Liv-ex 1000 now showing three consecutive months of small but consistent gains.
- When is this happening?
- This early-stage recovery is emerging across September, October, and November 2025, following three years of value erosion in the main Liv-ex benchmarks.
- Where is the recovery concentrated?
- The improvement is led by historically strong regions — notably Burgundy and Italy — with Italian blue-chip wines such as Sassicaia, Soldera, and top Piedmont producers displaying exceptional relative resilience compared with other segments.
- Why does it matter?
- Liquidity, buyer confidence, and pricing equilibrium are gradually returning after a long correction, but upside remains focused on classic labels and proven vintages. Investors need to be selective and data-driven, as broad, indiscriminate exposure to fine wine still carries meaningful downside and opportunity cost.
The November Numbers Revealing Fragile Momentum
The Liv-Ex 100 performance provides the clearest snapshot of where the market actually stands rather than where enthusiasts hope it’s heading.
That 0.9% month-on-month improvement in November represents meaningful progress when viewed against recent history, with the year-to-date decline narrowing to negative 2.8% according to TradingGrapes, which is substantially better than the steeper losses accumulated earlier in the year.
The index includes prestigious Italian references like Bartolo Mascarello Barolo 2019, Bruno Giacosa Falletto Riserva 2017, Giacomo Conterno Monfortino from the 2014-2015 vintages, plus Super Tuscan icons including Sassicaia 2019-2021, Solaia 2021, Tignanello 2020-2021, Ornellaia 2021, and Masseto 2020-2021.
The broader Liv-Ex 1000 tells a similar story of fragile recovery rather than robust rebound. November marked the second consecutive monthly rise, but gains of just 0.4% month-on-month leave the year-to-date loss at negative 4.5%. Regional performance within the index shows uneven dynamics, with the Burgundy 150 sub-index rising 1.1% in September according to WineNews, helping narrow its year-to-date decline to negative 5.8% at that point.
The Bordeaux 500 sub-index achieved a notable milestone in November by recording its first increase since March 2023 according to TradingGrapes, ending nearly two years of consecutive declines. Yet even this long-awaited reversal came with modest magnitude rather than explosive gains, reflecting buyers’ continued caution about the region that traditionally dominated fine wine investment but has struggled with oversupply and changing collector preferences in recent years.
Italy’s performance stands out for relative stability rather than dramatic movement. The Italy 100 sub-index recorded the strongest regional gains in November with 1.3% month-on-month improvement driven by demand for wines like Sassicaia and Soldera according to TradingGrapes.
Yet year-to-date figures show the broader Italian index essentially unchanged at negative 0.1% month-on-month and negative 1.8% for the full year, demonstrating Italian resilience in maintaining values rather than driving growth that lifts the entire market.
Lastly, the Liv-Ex 100’s bid-to-offer ratio rose to 0.93 in October from just 0.39 in July according to data from Liv-ex reported by Vinum Fine Wines, marking the highest level since November 2022.
A higher ratio indicates improving balance between buyers and sellers, suggesting genuine demand recovery rather than just speculative positioning or short-term technical factors driving price movements.
Fine Wine Index Performance Snapshot (2025)
| Index / Metric | MoM Change (latest) | YTD Change | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liv-ex 100 | +0.9% | approx. −2.8% | November 2025 |
| Liv-ex 1000 | +0.4% | approx. −4.5% | November 2025 |
| Burgundy 150 | +1.1% | approx. −5.8% | September 2025 |
| Italy 100 | +1.3% | approx. −1.8% | November 2025 |
| Bid-to-Offer Ratio (Liv-ex 100) | 0.39 → 0.93 | n/a | July–October 2025 |
What This Fragile Recovery Means for Wine Investors
The market consensus among professionals closest to actual transactions refuses to characterize current conditions as a robust rebound despite three consecutive months of improvement.
Cru Wine’s assessment acknowledges the changes as “clear and meaningful improvement” representing the “strongest signal in years,” yet carefully avoids declaring victory or suggesting the worst has definitively passed.
This distinction between trend reversal and genuine recovery proves crucial for investors making allocation decisions about whether to increase wine exposure or remain cautious.
The expected trajectory involves slow and uneven progress rather than the sharp V-shaped bounce that followed previous market corrections. Market consensus confirms that recovery will be supported by stronger buyer engagement and broader regional stability according to Cru Wine, but this suggests extended periods of modest, inconsistent gains across different regions and price points rather than synchronized improvement that lifts all quality wines simultaneously.
What makes current conditions meaningful despite modest magnitude is comparison to what preceded them. Three consecutive positive months represent substantial improvement over what Cru Wine describes as “freefall trends seen in recent months,” when declining bids, widening bid-offer spreads, and vanishing liquidity created genuine concern about whether fine wine could stabilize at all. Stopping the decline represents the essential first step toward eventual recovery, even if appreciation remains distant.
Moreover, trading levels are gradually approaching pre-tariff norms according to Oeno Group analysis, referencing the 20% US tariffs imposed in early 2025 that disrupted transatlantic wine trade and created pricing dislocations.
This normalization suggests the market is digesting previous shocks and finding equilibrium rather than facing new destabilizing events that could trigger renewed declines.
Yet vulnerability persists in how narrowly recovery concentrates at the market’s peak. The improvement appears driven predominantly by “classic labels, blue chip estates, and long established producers” according to Cru Wine and TradingGrapes reporting, suggesting demand focuses on the very top end while mid-tier and entry-level fine wines continue struggling to attract buyers or maintain values.
This creates a constrained investment opportunity set where only the most prestigious names and vintages show genuine momentum, leaving broader portfolios without the rising tide that typically lifts quality wines during genuine bull markets.
