Christie's, Sotheby's, and Phillips have produced an auction calendar across the past three seasons that points to a turning point for the art market. The 2024 evening-sale totals were down materially from the 2022 peak, but the composition of the sales, the bidding depth in the mid-tier, and the geographic spread of buyers suggest a structural reset rather than a cyclical decline.
That reset is now showing up in the November and May calendar with consistency. Our coverage of the broader trends defining 2026 traces the through-line; this piece focuses specifically on what the three houses are telling us in their published sale results.
- Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips produced an auction calendar across the past three seasons pointing to a structural turning point rather than a cyclical decline.
- Aggregate evening-sale hammer at the three houses fell roughly twenty-five percent in 2024 against the 2022 peak, with the decline concentrated almost entirely in the twenty-million-dollar-plus tier.
- The one million to twenty million dollar segment was materially more stable, and the under one million dollar segment held up well across the same period.
- Blue-chip names including Picasso, Basquiat, Warhol, Hockney and Twombly continued to sell with depth, though estimates pulled back roughly fifteen to twenty percent from the 2022 peaks.
- Ultra-contemporary speculation produced multiple notable failures across 2024 evening sales, with several lots bought-in or selling well below estimate at the major houses.
- Asia-Pacific participation returned in the November 2024 calendar, and Paris emerged as a credible alternative centre alongside the New York and London evening sales.
- Who is this for?
- Collectors, advisors and observers of the global art market tracking how Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips are reading the structural shift across the past three auction calendars.
- What is happening?
- An editorial read on the turning point in the auction market, covering the 2024 numbers, the composition of evening sales, geographic bidding spread and the rise of private sales.
- When did this emerge?
- Most relevant around the May and November evening sales at the three major houses and the equivalent Hong Kong and Paris calendars that increasingly anchor the global year.
- Where is this happening?
- Centred on the New York, London, Paris and Hong Kong salesrooms at Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips, with growing weight from Middle Eastern institutional buyers across the year.
- Why does it matter?
- Reading the turning point correctly matters more than chasing individual lots, because the structural shift now under way will shape pricing, demand and deal flow well into 2026.
The 2024 numbers, plainly
Aggregate evening-sale hammer at the three houses fell roughly 25 percent in 2024 against the 2022 peak. The decline was concentrated almost entirely in the $20M-plus tier; the $1M-to-$20M segment was materially more stable, and the under-$1M segment held up well.
That distribution matters. A market correction driven by thin participation at the trophy tier is a different signal than a broad-based downturn. The handful of nine-figure lots that anchor the headline calendar transact among a pool of perhaps two hundred ultra-high-net-worth bidders globally; when that pool tightens, the totals fall sharply even if the mid-market is functioning.
The 2024 Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report tracked the same dynamic from the broader market data: total sales down, transaction counts holding, mid-tier resilience.
What sold and what didn't
Blue-chip names, Picasso, Basquiat, Warhol, Hockney, Twombly, continued to sell at evening-sale price points with depth, though estimates pulled back roughly 15 to 20 percent from the 2022 peaks. The discipline at the houses on estimate-setting has materially improved across the past two cycles.
The casualties were concentrated in the speculative tier. Ultra-Contemporary names that had run up in 2021 and 2022 saw multiple notable failures, with several lots bought-in or selling well below estimate. ArtTactic's Ultra-Contemporary index reflects the segment's correction.
The mid-market, the segment our coverage on mid-market works outperforming trophy sales tracks in detail, proved unusually resilient through the correction.
Geographic bidding spread
Asia-Pacific participation, which had narrowed in 2022 and 2023, returned in the November 2024 calendar. Sotheby's Hong Kong evening sale and Christie's first-ever Hong Kong evening sale at the new headquarters both drew measurable participation from Mainland Chinese and Southeast Asian collectors that had been absent from the prior season.
European participation has been the structural surprise. Paris in particular has emerged as a credible alternative centre, with Art Basel Paris driving Christie's and Sotheby's October sales activity at a tier closer to the New York and London evening sales than at any point in the past decade.
Middle East participation continues to expand. The Qatari, Emirati, and Saudi institutional buying tracked by the houses since 2018 has now extended into a private-collector base that participates regularly in the New York and London evening sales.
The house-by-house picture
Christie's leads on aggregate hammer and on the trophy tier. The house has retained the lion's share of nine-figure consignments and continues to anchor the New York evening calendar in May and November.
Sotheby's has built its position on breadth: more sales, more departments, more geographies, and a private-sale practice that now contributes a substantial share of total hammer. The 2024 reorganisation under Charles Stewart positioned the house for the mid-market resilience that has come to define the cycle.
Phillips has continued to grow its 20th Century and Contemporary Art evening sales, with a younger artist roster and a more digital-native buyer base than either Christie's or Sotheby's. Its 2024 calendar set multiple artist records for the cohort our artists defining the market in 2026 coverage tracks.
Private sales now matter as much as auctions
Christie's and Sotheby's both report private-sale totals that now approach a substantial fraction of their public-auction hammer. The trend has accelerated across the past five years and reflects a structural preference among consignors for confidentiality and negotiated terms in a slower market.
Phillips has built its private-sale practice more recently but at speed. The house's private-sale department now actively competes with Christie's and Sotheby's at the mid-trophy tier, particularly in the contemporary segment.
For consignors weighing the channel, the question is no longer whether to choose; the houses run integrated practices that move material between public and private depending on the lot's profile.
What the turning point actually is
The market is not returning to 2022. The cohort of speculative buyers that drove the 2020 to 2022 surge has largely withdrawn, and the trade is not expecting their return at scale.
What is returning is the mid-market. The $1M-to-$15M segment, where most serious collectors actually transact, is functioning with depth, geographic breadth, and bidding patience. That is the market that builds across a decade, and the houses are programming around it.
The trophy tier will recover, but on a different timeline and with a smaller, more carefully calibrated calendar. The 2025 and 2026 evening sales are likely to feature fewer nine-figure lots and more $20M-to-$50M material with deeper comparables.
What this means for collectors
The three houses are telling collectors the same thing in slightly different voices. The market has reset around the mid-tier, the institutional and private demand at that tier is genuine, and the trophy era is paused rather than ended.
For active collectors, this is the cycle in which to build position. The discipline that matters is the same it has always been, provenance, condition, primary-market validation, and the comparables now available across the past three seasons are unusually rich.
We last reviewed this analysis in May 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are art auction sales rising or falling in 2025?
Aggregate evening-sale hammer is down roughly 25 percent from the 2022 peak, but the decline is concentrated at the $20M-plus trophy tier. The $1M-to-$20M mid-market is materially more stable, and transaction counts overall are holding. The shift is best read as a structural reset around the mid-tier rather than a broad downturn.
Which auction house leads the market?
Christie's leads on aggregate hammer and on the trophy tier, retaining the lion's share of nine-figure consignments. Sotheby's has built on breadth with more sales and a substantial private-sale practice. Phillips has grown its 20th Century and Contemporary Art evening sales with a younger, more digital-native buyer base.
Why are private sales becoming so important?
Confidentiality, negotiated terms, and a slower public market that pushes consignors to seek alternatives. Christie's and Sotheby's both report private-sale totals that now approach a substantial fraction of their public-auction hammer, and Phillips has built its practice rapidly. The houses now run integrated practices that route lots between public and private depending on the work's profile.
Will the trophy art market recover?
Likely, but on a different timeline and at a different scale. The cohort of speculative buyers that drove the 2020 to 2022 surge has largely withdrawn, and the trade does not expect their return at scale. The 2025 and 2026 evening sales are likely to feature fewer nine-figure lots and more $20M-to-$50M material with deeper comparables.
Stefanos Moschopoulos
Stefanos Moschopoulos founded The Luxury Playbook in Athens and has spent the better part of a decade following the auction calendar, the en primeur releases, and the watchmakers, gallerists, and shipyards the magazine covers. He writes the field guides and listicles that anchor the Connoisseur section — pieces built on Phillips and Christie's results, Liv-ex movements, and conversations with collectors he has met across Geneva, Bordeaux, Basel, and Monaco. His own collecting habits sit closer to watches and wine than art, and it shows in the level of detail in the magazine's coverage of those categories. Under his direction, The Luxury Playbook now publishes long-form field guides, market-defining year-end listicles, and the Voices interview series with the founders behind the houses and the brands.
