With auction records continuing to shatter expectations and secondary market prices defying gravity for certain models, the investment case for horological assets has never been more complex.
This isn’t just about buying something beautiful for your wrist anymore. We’re talking about a market where pre-owned sales have evolved into a sophisticated asset class, complete with indices, institutional analysis, and serious money chasing returns.
The stakes have changed dramatically since collectors first started tracking their Submariner’s appreciation alongside their stock portfolio.
Table of Contents
Key Takeaways
Navigate between overview and detailed analysisKey Takeaways
- Secondary Market Now a Core Asset Class – Pre-owned luxury watch sales reached $24–25B in 2025, with forecasts of parity with primary sales within a decade.
- Blue-Chip Brands Dominate – Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet anchor the market; Q2 2025 saw Patek +0.6%, Rolex –0.2%, AP –0.3%.
- Liquidity and Global Platforms Drive Growth – Chrono24 lists 500,000+ watches, while auctions like Phillips report 99% sell-through rates.
- Risks Are Real – The 2022–2023 correction exposed hype-driven dangers, with non-blue-chip brands weak and counterfeits proliferating.
- Future Outlook: Selective Strength – Analysts expect Rolex, Patek, and AP to remain resilient while broader normalization continues, shaped by inflation and macro factors.
The Five Ws Analysis
- Who:
- Ultra-high-net-worth collectors, institutional investors, and mainstream buyers entering the Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) space.
- What:
- Luxury watches, especially steel sports models from Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet, forming a $25B secondary market with investment-grade traits.
- When:
- 2025 marks stabilization after the 2022–2023 correction, with selective brand gains and sector-wide normalization.
- Where:
- Liquidity hubs include the U.S., Middle East, and Europe, with China soft. Digital platforms like Chrono24 and eBay’s CPO programs expand global access.
- Why:
- Scarcity, cultural prestige, liquidity, and inflation-hedge potential drive demand. But speculative risks highlight the need for brand and model discipline.
The Evolution of Luxury Watches as an Investment Asset
For most of horological history, watches served as status symbols first and timepieces second. Investment potential? That was barely an afterthought. But something fundamental shifted over the past two decades, transforming these mechanical marvels into legitimate financial assets.
The Boston Consulting Group reveals just how dramatic this transformation has been. Pre-owned watch sales hit approximately $22 billion in 2021, representing roughly one-third of the entire market, and this secondary sector continues to outgrow primary sales at an impressive clip.
Grand View Research estimates the pre-owned market has grown to $24-25 billion by 2025, with some forecasts predicting it could reach parity with the primary market within the next decade.
This evolution didn’t happen in a vacuum. As Quill & Pad notes, over the past two decades, “blue-chip” models from Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet became market bellwethers, regularly featured in secondary indices and bank reports.
Investment professionals began tracking watch performance with the same rigor they applied to art or classic cars.
The catalyst for this transformation often traces back to cultural moments that elevated certain timepieces into art-asset territory. Phillips auction house highlights how celebrity provenance and pop culture pushed grails like the Paul Newman Daytona beyond mere collectibles into investment legends.
When Paul Newman’s personal Daytona sold for $17.75 million, it wasn’t just a watch sale – it was a declaration that horology had joined the ranks of serious alternative assets.
What sealed the deal was how brands themselves began institutionalizing investment behavior. WatchCharts points out that scarcity and brand control through limited allocations and strategic discontinuations created sustained investment dynamics around icons like the Daytona, Nautilus, and Royal Oak.
These weren’t accidental shortages – they were carefully orchestrated to maintain exclusivity and appreciation potential.
Current Market Trends and Price Movements in 2025
The 2025 market tells a story of resilience amid broader economic uncertainty. Quill & Pad reports that Q1 2025 secondary prices declined just 0.4%, marking the smallest decline since Q2 2022.
More encouraging still, Q2 2025 has been widely described as stabilizing, with strength from Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet offsetting weakness elsewhere in the luxury segment.
WatchCharts Overall Market Index reveals the complete multi-year cycle clearly: the dramatic run-up, the 2022-2023 correction that rattled many collectors, and the current stabilization phase. This data provides crucial context for anyone trying to time their next purchase or sale.
The winners and laggards paint an interesting picture of market dynamics. WatchCharts data shows Rolex remained remarkably resilient in the first half of 2025 while many brands in the $3,000+ category struggled.
July 2025 monthly performance illustrates this divergence perfectly: Rolex declined just 0.2%, Audemars Piguet fell 0.3%, while Patek Philippe actually gained 0.6%.
Behind these numbers lies massive marketplace activity. Chrono24 reports over 500,000 active listings and more than 9 million monthly shoppers, creating unprecedented liquidity for collectors. The platform even tracks category-specific surges, noting dive watches jumped 6.2% during summer months – a reminder that seasonality still influences certain segments.
Macro factors have played an increasingly important role in shaping prices. The Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, and FH Swiss extensively covered how 2025 U.S. tariffs on Swiss imports and higher gold prices triggered retail price hikes and export volatility.
The numbers tell the story dramatically: April saw a stunning 149% year-over-year export surge to the U.S. as buyers front-loaded purchases before tariffs hit, followed by a sharp 9.5% year-over-year decline in May as demand normalized.
Regional dynamics add another layer of complexity. The Wall Street Journal highlights ongoing softness in China – historically a crucial growth market – while the U.S. and Middle East remain critical demand pillars despite tariff-related noise.
Why Collectors and Investors Are Still Betting on Luxury Watches
Despite market volatility and economic uncertainty, smart money continues flowing into luxury watches for several compelling reasons that go beyond simple speculation.
Deloitte United Kingdom research reveals that one in five consumers explicitly views watches, whether new or pre-owned, as an investment.
This isn’t just collector enthusiasm, it represents mainstream recognition of watches as stores of value. The rise of Certified Pre-Owned programs has increased trust and willingness to pay premiums, legitimizing the secondary market for traditional luxury buyers.
Liquidity remains a crucial advantage that separates watches from many alternative investments. With over 500,000 listings on Chrono24 and more than 9 million monthly users, the depth of the online market provides unprecedented access to buyers and sellers globally.
Phillips auction house reported a remarkable 99%+ sell-through rate in 2024, demonstrating strong institutional demand at the high end.
The scarcity factor continues driving enduring secondary demand, particularly for steel sports icons. WatchCharts emphasizes how limited production, tight allocations, and strategically discontinued references create sustained pricing power that few other collectible categories can match.
Perhaps most importantly, watches offer something purely financial investments cannot: emotional and lifestyle utility combined with identity signaling. Deloitte’s consumer behavior research shows this keeps demand sticky compared to purely financial collectibles that exist only on paper or in storage facilities.
Are Luxury Watches Becoming Too Expensive to Buy in 2025?
The accessibility question weighs heavily on many collectors’ minds as entry barriers continue rising across the luxury segment. WatchCharts data shows most major brands implemented retail price increases in the first half of 2025, with Rolex and Tudor leading the charge with two separate increases in the U.S. market alone.
Authorized dealer allocation pressure remains intense, particularly for flagship steel sports models. WatchCharts notes that scarcity and waitlists persist for the most desirable pieces, sustaining those hefty secondary market premiums that can double or triple retail prices for certain references.
Material costs have added another layer of pricing pressure. The Financial Times reports that surging gold input costs and tariffs prompted significant pricing shifts, with some brands actually paring down their gold inventories to manage margin pressure.
The psychological question haunting many collectors is whether prices have already peaked.
Market indices suggest stabilization rather than a new boom cycle, with selective strength at the top tier but mixed performance across broader categories. This creates a complex landscape where timing and selection matter more than ever.
Risks, Market Corrections, and Investor Caution Points
No investment comes without risks, and luxury watches present several caution points that smart collectors must consider before deploying significant capital.
The 2022-2023 market deflation serves as a stark reminder of hype-cycle risk. WatchCharts data shows many non-blue-chip brands continue trending downward in 2025, illustrating how quickly sentiment can shift when speculation exceeds genuine demand. Buying at peak hype remains one of the most dangerous mistakes collectors can make.
Month-to-month volatility remains uneven and sometimes unpredictable. Quill & Pad notes that even blue-chip brands show inconsistent performance, with July 2025 seeing Rolex down 0.2%, Audemars Piguet down 0.3%, and Patek Philippe up 0.6% – reminding investors that short-term fluctuations can be significant.
Illiquidity presents a particular risk for lesser-known brands and models. Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts data reveal that these segments often feature thin markets and wider bid-ask spreads compared to the established triumvirate of Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet. Getting stuck with an illiquid piece can be costly.
Authentication concerns have grown alongside market sophistication. eBay Inc. reports significant growth in their Authenticity Guarantee program and in-house authentication services, illustrating both the scale of counterfeit risk and the industry’s evolving response to fraud concerns.
Where the Luxury Watch Market Is Headed Next
Looking ahead, the expert consensus suggests continued evolution rather than dramatic shifts in market dynamics. Morgan Stanley’s collaboration with WatchCharts for Q1/Q2 2025 analysis points toward a base case of selective stability with blue-chip leadership, while broader market segments remain bifurcated through 2025.
WatchCharts expects Rolex to remain the secondary market anchor, with Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet showing selective strength while many other brands continue normalizing from earlier peaks. This polarization creates both opportunities and risks depending on where collectors choose to focus their attention.
New demand vectors are reshaping market access and liquidity. The scale of platforms like Chrono24 with over 500,000 listings, combined with certified marketplaces and CPO programs highlighted by eBay, continues deepening global liquidity. The Wall Street Journal notes that the U.S. and Middle East remain pivotal demand centers while China shows continued unevenness.
Perhaps most intriguingly, the Financial Times suggests that with ongoing inflation, foreign exchange volatility, and tariff uncertainties, high-quality watches may continue functioning as a relative hedge against traditional market risks.
However, short-term price action remains highly dependent on policy decisions and input costs like gold pricing.
Should You Invest in Luxury Watches Before Prices Climb Higher?
Yes, but only buy blue-chip steel sports models at retail prices or verified secondary market pieces with proven demand data. Avoid speculative watches with high premiums as success now requires patience, dealer relationships, and disciplined selection over broad speculation.
