Are Luxury Watches Still A Good Investment Before Prices Rise Further?

Auction records keep shattering expectations and secondary market prices keep defying gravity for certain models. The investment case for horological assets has never been more complex, and if you’re holding a Rolex or eyeing one, you need to understand exactly where things stand right now.

This isn’t just about buying something beautiful for your wrist anymore. You’re looking at a market where pre-owned sales have evolved into a sophisticated asset class, complete with indices, institutional analysis, and serious money chasing real returns.

The stakes have changed dramatically since collectors first started tracking their Submariner’s appreciation alongside their stock portfolio. What was once a passion purchase is now a portfolio decision.

Key Takeaways

Navigate between overview and detailed analysis

Key Takeaways

• Secondary Market Now a Core Asset Class – Pre-owned luxury watch sales reached $24–25B in 2025, with forecasts of parity with primary sales within a decade.
• Blue-Chip Brands Dominate – Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet anchor the market; Q2 2025 saw Patek +0.6%, Rolex –0.2%, AP –0.3%.
• Liquidity and Global Platforms Drive Growth – Chrono24 lists 500,000+ watches, while auctions like Phillips report 99% sell-through rates.
• Risks Are Real – The 2022–2023 correction exposed hype-driven dangers, with non-blue-chip brands weak and counterfeits proliferating.
• Future Outlook: Selective Strength – Analysts expect Rolex, Patek, and AP to remain resilient while broader normalization continues, shaped by inflation and macro factors.

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The Five Ws Analysis

Who:

Ultra-high-net-worth collectors, institutional investors, and mainstream buyers entering the Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) space.

What:

Luxury watches, especially steel sports models from Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet, forming a $25B secondary market with investment-grade traits.

When:

2025 marks stabilization after the 2022–2023 correction, with selective brand gains and sector-wide normalization.

Where:

Liquidity hubs include the U.S., Middle East, and Europe, with China soft. Digital platforms like Chrono24 and eBay’s CPO programs expand global access.

Why:

Scarcity, cultural prestige, liquidity, and inflation-hedge potential drive demand. But speculative risks highlight the need for brand and model discipline.

The Evolution of Luxury Watches as an Investment Asset

For most of horological history, watches were status symbols first and timepieces second. Investment potential? Barely an afterthought. But something shifted over the past two decades, turning these mechanical marvels into legitimate financial assets that deserve a place in your broader wealth strategy.

The Boston Consulting Group captured just how dramatic this transformation has been. Pre-owned watch sales hit approximately $22 billion in 2021, accounting for roughly one-third of the entire market, and that secondary sector has been outgrowing primary sales at an impressive clip ever since.

Grand View Research estimates the pre-owned market has grown to $24-25 billion by 2025, with some forecasts predicting it could reach parity with the primary market within the next decade.

This evolution didn’t happen in a vacuum. As Quill & Pad notes, over the past two decades, blue-chip models from Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet became market bellwethers, regularly featured in secondary indices and bank reports that your wealth manager is probably already reading.

Investment professionals started tracking watch performance with the same rigor they apply to art or classic cars. That shift in mindset changed everything.

The catalyst often traces back to cultural moments that elevated certain timepieces into art-asset territory. Phillips auction house has documented how celebrity provenance and pop culture pushed grails like the Paul Newman Daytona far beyond mere collectibles into investment legends.

When Paul Newman’s personal Daytona sold for $17.75 million, it wasn’t just a watch sale. It was a declaration that horology had joined the ranks of serious alternative assets alongside fine art and rare wine.

What sealed the deal was how brands themselves began institutionalizing investment behavior. WatchCharts points out that scarcity and brand control through limited allocations and strategic discontinuations created sustained investment dynamics around icons like the Daytona, Nautilus, and Royal Oak.

These weren’t accidental shortages. They were carefully orchestrated to maintain exclusivity and keep appreciation potential alive for the buyers who got in early.

Current Market Trends and Price Movements in 2026

The 2026 market tells a story of resilience amid broader economic uncertainty. Quill & Pad reports that secondary prices have shown minimal decline, marking the most stable period since mid-2022 as the market works through its post-correction phase.

More encouraging still, the most recent quarters have been widely described as stabilizing, with strength from Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet offsetting weakness elsewhere in the luxury segment. If you’re holding blue-chip references, that’s exactly what you want to hear.

The WatchCharts Overall Market Index lays out the complete multi-year cycle clearly: the dramatic run-up, the 2022 to 2023 correction that rattled many collectors, and the current stabilization phase. That data gives you crucial context if you’re trying to time your next purchase or sale.

The winners and laggards paint an interesting picture of market dynamics. WatchCharts data shows Rolex remained remarkably resilient in the first half of 2025 while many brands in the $3,000+ category struggled.

Recent monthly performance illustrates this divergence perfectly. Rolex declined just 0.2%, Audemars Piguet fell 0.3%, while Patek Philippe actually gained 0.6%. Not all watches move together, and that spread matters when you’re picking your spots.

Behind these numbers lies massive marketplace activity. Chrono24 reports over 500,000 active listings and more than 9 million monthly shoppers, creating unprecedented liquidity for collectors. The platform even tracks category-specific surges, with dive watches jumping 6.2% during summer months, a reminder that seasonality still moves certain segments.

Macro factors have played an increasingly important role in shaping prices. The Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, and the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry extensively covered how U.S. tariffs on Swiss imports and higher gold prices triggered retail price hikes and export volatility that rippled through the entire market.

The numbers tell the story vividly. April saw a stunning 149% year-over-year export surge to the U.S. as buyers front-loaded purchases before tariffs hit, followed by a sharp 9.5% year-over-year decline in May as demand normalized. If you were watching the market then, you felt every bit of that whipsaw.

Regional dynamics add another layer of complexity. The Wall Street Journal highlights ongoing softness in China, historically a crucial growth market, while the U.S. and Middle East hold firm as critical demand pillars despite tariff-related noise.

Why Collectors and Investors Are Still Betting on Luxury Watches

Despite market volatility and economic uncertainty, smart money keeps flowing into luxury watches. And it’s not just speculation driving that. There are several compelling reasons that go well beyond hype.

Deloitte United Kingdom research reveals that one in five consumers explicitly views watches, whether new or pre-owned, as an investment.

This isn’t just collector enthusiasm anymore. Watches have earned mainstream recognition as genuine stores of value. The rise of Certified Pre-Owned programs has increased trust and willingness to pay premiums, legitimizing the secondary market for traditional luxury buyers who previously wouldn’t touch pre-owned. You can see a similar dynamic playing out with Tudor watches gaining serious investment credibility alongside their more famous stablemates.

Liquidity is a crucial advantage that separates watches from many alternative investments. With over 500,000 listings on Chrono24 and more than 9 million monthly users, the depth of the online market gives you access to buyers and sellers globally in a way that simply wasn’t possible a decade ago.

Phillips auction house reported a remarkable 99%+ sell-through rate in 2024, demonstrating strong institutional demand at the high end.

The scarcity factor keeps driving enduring secondary demand, particularly for steel sports icons. WatchCharts emphasizes how limited production, tight allocations, and strategically discontinued references create sustained pricing power that few other collectible categories can match. Your Submariner isn’t just a watch. It’s a scarce asset.

Perhaps most importantly, watches offer something purely financial investments cannot. You get emotional and lifestyle utility combined with identity signaling, all wrapped around your wrist. Deloitte’s consumer behavior research shows this keeps demand sticky compared to purely financial collectibles that exist only on paper or sit in a storage facility you never visit. That’s a real edge worth factoring into your thinking, much like how working with an art advisor can help you find assets that carry both aesthetic and financial value.

Are Luxury Watches Becoming Too Expensive to Buy in 2026?

The accessibility question weighs heavily on many collectors’ minds as entry barriers keep rising across the luxury segment. WatchCharts data shows most major brands implemented retail price increases in the first half of the year, with Rolex and Tudor leading the charge with two separate increases in the U.S. market alone.

Authorized dealer allocation pressure stays intense, particularly for flagship steel sports models. WatchCharts notes that scarcity and waitlists persist for the most desirable pieces, sustaining those hefty secondary market premiums that can double or triple retail prices for certain references. Getting on the right AD’s radar still matters enormously.

Material costs have added another layer of pricing pressure. The Financial Times reports that surging gold input costs and tariffs prompted significant pricing shifts, with some brands actually paring down their gold inventories to manage margin pressure. That cost squeeze doesn’t disappear overnight.

The psychological question haunting many collectors is whether prices have already peaked.

Market indices suggest stabilization rather than a new boom cycle, with selective strength at the top tier but mixed performance across broader categories. Timing and selection matter more than ever right now, and chasing the wrong reference at the wrong price can hurt you.

Risks, Market Corrections, and Investor Caution Points

No investment comes without risks, and luxury watches present several caution points you need to consider seriously before deploying significant capital into the category.

The 2022 to 2023 market deflation stands as a stark reminder of hype-cycle risk. WatchCharts data shows many non-blue-chip brands kept trending downward through the correction, illustrating how quickly sentiment can shift when speculation outruns genuine demand. Buying at peak hype is one of the most costly mistakes you can make in this market.

Month-to-month volatility stays uneven and sometimes unpredictable. Even blue-chip brands show inconsistent short-term performance, with Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe all moving in different directions within the same month. Short-term fluctuations can be meaningful, so don’t let one good month convince you a broader trend has arrived.

Illiquidity poses a particular risk for lesser-known brands and models. Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts data both reveal that these segments often feature thin markets and wider bid-ask spreads compared to the established triumvirate. Getting stuck with an illiquid piece can tie up your capital far longer than you planned, which is exactly the kind of trap that catches collectors who stray too far from quality. The same principle applies across alternative assets, whether you’re looking at watches or rare coins and collectibles favored by family offices.

Authentication concerns have grown alongside market sophistication. eBay reports significant growth in their Authenticity Guarantee program and in-house authentication services, which tells you two things at once: counterfeit risk is real and the industry is working hard to respond. Always buy from verified sources with proper documentation.

Where the Luxury Watch Market Is Headed Next

Looking ahead, the expert consensus points toward continued evolution rather than dramatic shifts in market dynamics. Morgan Stanley’s collaboration with WatchCharts for recent quarterly analysis points toward a base case of selective stability with blue-chip leadership, while broader market segments stay bifurcated into 2026 and beyond.

WatchCharts expects Rolex to hold its position as the secondary market anchor, with Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet showing selective strength while many other brands keep normalizing from earlier peaks. That polarization creates both opportunities and real risks depending on where you choose to focus your attention and your capital. Worth keeping an eye on pieces like the Patek Philippe Star Caliber 2000 as a bellwether for top-tier collector demand.

New demand vectors are reshaping market access and liquidity. The scale of platforms like Chrono24, combined with certified marketplaces and CPO programs, keeps deepening global liquidity in ways that benefit you as a buyer and seller. The U.S. and Middle East hold firm as pivotal demand centers while China shows continued unevenness that bears watching.

Perhaps most intriguingly, the Financial Times suggests that with ongoing inflation, foreign exchange volatility, and tariff uncertainties still in play, high-quality watches may keep functioning as a relative hedge against traditional market risks. That’s a meaningful argument if your portfolio already skews heavily toward equities or bonds.

That said, short-term price action stays highly dependent on policy decisions and input costs like gold pricing. Stay informed, stay selective, and don’t let short-term noise drive long-term decisions.