Greece’s Real Estate Market Analysis & Forecast (2024 – 2025)

The Greek real estate market in 2024 & 2025 is poised for continued growth, with increasing property values and steady demand from both local and international buyers.

As key metrics such as transaction values and property prices continue to rise, Greece remains an attractive destination for real estate investment.

The market’s strength is supported by customer preferences for historical and eco-friendly properties, urban migration, and the unique geographical appeal of the country.

Looking ahead, the market is expected to stabilize with steady growth, particularly in the residential real estate sector, which is projected to account for the majority of the market’s total value in the coming years.

With favorable macroeconomic conditions, government incentives, and sustained demand for prime properties, Greece’s real estate market is set to remain a lucrative investment opportunity.

Article Summary

Over the past decade, Greece’s real estate market has undergone substantial shifts, from the severe downturn during the 2008 financial crisis to a gradual recovery beginning in 2018. Property prices, which had plummeted by an average of 42% during the crisis, started to rebound due to factors like economic stabilization, government incentives such as the Golden Visa program, and a surge in tourism-driven demand.

Urban centers like Athens and Thessaloniki have seen notable price increases, particularly in gentrifying neighborhoods and areas popular with short-term rental investors. As we look ahead to 2024 and beyond, the market is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace, with foreign investment and the tourism sector playing pivotal roles.

However, potential challenges, including economic uncertainty and regulatory changes, could impact future growth. Investors are advised to consider high-growth urban areas and tourist hotspots for the best returns, while staying mindful of the evolving economic landscape.

Key Metrics & Statistics of the Greek Real Estate Market

In recent years, Greece’s real estate market has seen significant expansion. Properties in popular tourist destinations and urban areas have attracted high demand, driving up both property values and transaction volumes.

Several factors, such as the country’s economic recovery, favorable investment conditions, and growing interest in sustainable properties, have played a vital role in shaping the market.

According to the latest data, the total value of Greece’s real estate market is projected to continue growing steadily over the next several years. This trend can be seen clearly in the transaction values and average property prices.

Transaction Value Growth

The Greek residential real estate market has demonstrated consistent growth in transaction value over recent years. In 2017, the sector recorded a transaction value of $4.94 billion, which increased to $5.83 billion by 2019. Projections indicate that by the end of 2024, the transaction value will reach $7.94 billion, with expectations of further growth in the subsequent years.

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest that by 2029, the residential real estate market in Greece will attain a transaction value of approximately $9.39 billion.

This upward trajectory reflects heightened investor confidence, the attractiveness of Greek properties to international buyers, and the overall robustness of Greece’s housing market.

Several factors contribute to this positive outlook:

• Foreign Investment: The Greek real estate market has seen a surge in demand from international investors, drawn by the country’s appealing investment opportunities and relatively affordable property prices.
  
  
• Economic Stability: Greece’s economic recovery and political stability have bolstered the real estate sector, encouraging both domestic and foreign investments.
  
  
• Tourism Growth: The increase in tourism has positively impacted the real estate market, particularly in regions popular with tourists, leading to higher demand for residential properties.

These elements collectively enhance the appeal of Greece’s residential real estate market, indicating a promising trajectory for the coming years.

Total Property Value of Greece by The Luxury Playbook

Value Per Residential Real Estate

Another important metric to consider is the average value per residential real estate unit. In 2017, the average value stood at $244.80 thousand, and over the years, this figure has continued to rise.

As of November 2024, the average residential property is valued at $292.70 thousand, with forecasts for 2029 estimating a value of around $364.50 thousand.

This steady increase in property value highlights the appreciation of the Greek real estate market, driven by growing demand and the limited availability of high-quality homes, especially in urban centers and tourist destinations.

Commercial vs. Residential

A key insight from the available data is the clear distinction between the commercial and residential real estate markets.

Over the years, residential real estate has consistently accounted for the majority of the total value.

For example, in 2024, 82.94% of the total market value was attributed to residential real estate, while commercial real estate accounted for only 17.06%.

The share of residential real estate is projected to grow further in the coming years, reaching 85.66% by 2029, while the share of commercial real estate will likely decrease to 15.64%.

This shift can be attributed to the increasing demand for homes, driven by urban migration, tourism, and Greece’s appeal as a second-home destination.

Annual Percentage Change in Value

When examining the annual percentage change in real estate value, a few notable trends emerge. From 2017 to 2024, the market experienced periods of growth, particularly in 2021, where residential real estate saw an 11.2% increase.

This spike was primarily driven by the post-pandemic recovery and increased demand for vacation homes and investment properties.

However, growth has slowed somewhat in recent years, with projections for 2024 indicating a 4.13% increase.

From 2025 onwards, the market is expected to stabilize, with annual growth rates hovering around 3.7% to 3.2% for residential real estate through 2029.

Customer Preferences and Trends in the Greek Real Estate Market

As the Greek real estate market continues to evolve, customer preferences are also shifting. A notable trend is the increasing demand for properties with historical charm and eco-friendly features.

Greece’s rich cultural heritage and its status as a top tourist destination have made properties in picturesque regions highly desirable among both domestic and international buyers.

Moreover, buyers are now prioritizing sustainability. Eco-friendly homes and energy-efficient buildings are gaining traction, as individuals become more conscious of their environmental impact.

The demand for energy-efficient homes is likely to continue growing, creating opportunities for developers who can meet these preferences.

Another significant trend is the growing interest in urban living, particularly among younger professionals and families.

With more people moving to cities for work and better amenities, the demand for apartments and multi-use projects is rising.

This urban migration is leading to a surge in new developments, particularly in Athens and Thessaloniki, where buyers are seeking properties that provide access to work, entertainment, and transportation hubs.

In addition to local demand, international buyers are showing interest in urban properties, further boosting the market.

Greece’s cities are becoming attractive locations for investment, and with the steady rise in property prices, urban real estate is seen as a profitable long-term asset.

Greece’s unique geographical landscape has had a substantial influence on its real estate market. Coastal properties with sea views, particularly in the Mediterranean region, are highly sought after by both local and international buyers.

Areas such as the Greek islands, Athens Riviera, and other coastal regions continue to experience strong demand, driving up property prices.

Additionally, Greece’s natural beauty and proximity to popular tourist destinations have made it an attractive location for second-home buyers and vacation rentals.

This trend is likely to continue as international tourism recovers and Greece remains a top destination for vacationers.

Greek Real Estate Market Forecast for 2025

Continued Growth in Property Prices

Property prices in Greece are projected to keep rising until the end of 2024, though the pace may slow down compared to previous years.

The Bank of Greece reported that in 2023, property prices increased by 7.9%, marking a strong recovery since the financial crisis.

This trend is expected to continue, driven by the stabilization of the economy and sustained foreign investment.

By the end of 2024, the average residential real estate value is expected to reach 349.90 thousand USD, with a further increase projected in the following years, reaching 364.50 thousand USD by 2029.

This steady upward trajectory can be attributed to factors such as Urbanization and strong demand for Vacation homes.

Cities such as Athens and Thessaloniki are experiencing increased interest from local and international buyers, driven by better infrastructure, urban renewal projects, and a modernized transport system.

Moreover, as Greece continues to be a prime tourist destination, the demand for vacation homes has risen, particularly in coastal regions. These properties have a dual purpose—providing rental income and serving as long-term investments.

The Impact of Interest Rates

Interest rates will significantly influence Greece’s real estate market in 2025. As central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), adjust rates to combat inflation, mortgage borrowing costs might increase.

In 2023, the ECB raised interest rates to 4%, the highest in over a decade, to tackle inflationary pressures across Europe. This increase in rates could dampen demand for mortgages, particularly among first-time buyers.

The Role of Technology and Digital Transformation

Technology is rapidly changing the real estate market in Greece, making it more accessible and efficient. In 2023, digital platforms saw a 20% increase in usage for property transactions, according to data from Proptech Greece.

Virtual property tours and online transactions have become more common, providing convenience for both local and international buyers. Real estate agencies are increasingly adopting digital tools to streamline processes and enhance customer experiences.

This trend is expected to gain momentum in 2025, with more agencies and developers integrating advanced proptech solutions, including AI-driven property management and blockchain for secure transactions.

These innovations are poised to further modernize the market and attract tech-savvy investors.

Historical Evolution of Greece’s Real Estate Market

The Financial Crisis and Its Aftermath

The 2008 global financial crisis had a profound impact on Greece’s real estate market, triggering a steep and prolonged decline in property values.

Between 2008 and 2017, Greek property prices plummeted by an average of 42%, with certain regions witnessing even greater losses. For instance, properties in some urban areas saw declines of over 50%.

This sharp depreciation led to a significant loss of wealth for property owners and a substantial contraction in the real estate sector.

However, this downturn also set the stage for investment opportunities as prices fell to historic lows, attracting interest from opportunistic investors and foreign buyers seeking bargains.

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Recovery and Growth: 2018-2023

From 2018 onwards, Greece’s real estate market began a gradual recovery. This rebound was supported by a range of factors, including economic stabilization following years of austerity, government initiatives to attract investment, and a surge in foreign interest, particularly from the European Union and China.

According to the Bank of Greece, property prices in Athens rose by approximately 32% between 2018 and 2022.

This resurgence was particularly strong in the capital, where the influx of tourists and the short-term rental market, fueled by platforms like Airbnb, contributed to rising property values.

By 2023, despite this recovery, property prices in many areas still remained below their pre-crisis peaks, offering continued opportunities for investment.

Key Contributing Factors to Recovery

• Tourism and Short-Term Rentals: The boom in Greece’s tourism sector played a crucial role in the real estate recovery, especially in cities like Athens and popular islands. The growth of short-term rental platforms like Airbnb significantly increased demand for properties in tourist hotspots, driving up prices.
  
  
• Economic Stabilization: Greece’s economy began to stabilize after years of recession, with GDP growth returning to positive territory in the late 2010s. This economic recovery, coupled with a reduction in unemployment rates and increased consumer confidence, spurred demand in the real estate market.
  
  
• Government Incentives: The Greek government introduced several measures to boost the property market. These included tax incentives for property purchases, particularly for foreign investors, and the “Golden Visa” program, which grants residency to non-EU nationals who invest in Greek real estate.
  
  
• Foreign Investment: Greece became an attractive destination for foreign investors, drawn by the relatively low property prices and the potential for high returns. Chinese investors, in particular, have been significant players in the market, often linked to the Golden Visa program. Additionally, European buyers sought second homes or rental properties in Greece’s popular tourist destinations.
  
  

Key Trends Shaping Greece’s Real Estate Market in 2024

Urban Revival: The Rise of Athens and Thessaloniki

Athens and Thessaloniki have become central to Greece’s ongoing real estate revival, especially post-2018. Athens, in particular, has seen a robust increase in demand for residential properties, especially in neighborhoods like Koukaki, Exarchia, and Pangrati.

These areas have garnered attention due to their proximity to cultural landmarks, vibrant urban life, and recent infrastructure improvements.

In Thessaloniki, similar trends are emerging, with a growing number of both domestic and international buyers showing interest in its residential and commercial properties.

Athens’ appeal is also bolstered by its rich historical and cultural heritage, which attracts millions of tourists annually. As infrastructure continues to improve, including the extension of metro lines and renovation of public spaces, the city’s real estate market has become increasingly attractive to investors.

The surge in property demand has been particularly pronounced in districts undergoing gentrification, where property values have appreciated significantly.

For instance, data from the Bank of Greece shows that residential property prices in central Athens increased by over 35% from 2018 to 2023, with similar trends observed in Thessaloniki.

The influx of foreign investment, coupled with the revival of domestic demand, has been a driving force behind this growth.

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The Influence of Tourism and Short-Term Rentals

Tourism remains a cornerstone of the Greek economy, contributing significantly to the real estate market’s dynamics. The boom in platforms like Airbnb has revolutionized the property market, particularly in areas with high tourist traffic such as Santorini, Mykonos, and Crete.

Investors are increasingly buying properties with the intent of turning them into short-term rentals, attracted by the potential for high returns during the tourist season.

This trend has led to a sharp increase in property prices in these tourist-heavy areas. For example, in 2023, property prices in Mykonos rose by nearly 20%, driven largely by demand from short-term rental investors.

The growing popularity of Greece as a tourist destination—welcoming over 33 million visitors in 2023—continues to fuel this segment of the real estate market.

Moreover, the Greek government has recognized the impact of short-term rentals on the economy and has introduced regulations to ensure sustainable growth.

These regulations aim to balance the benefits of tourism with the need to protect local housing markets from excessive price inflation.

Foreign Investment and the Golden Visa Program

The Golden Visa program has been a significant catalyst for foreign investment in Greece’s real estate market.

Starting from September, in the Attica Region, the Regional Units of Thessaloniki, Mykonos, and Santorini, and on islands with a population of over 3,100 residents, the value of real estate purchased under the golden visa scheme cannot be lower than 800,000 euros.

In the rest of the country, the value of real estate is set at 400,000 euros.

The program has proven particularly popular with investors from China, Russia, and the Middle East, who see Greece as a stable and strategically located gateway to Europe.

Investors from Israel showed the highest growth rate, with a 70% increase compared to last year, obtaining 271 permits, up from 159. British and American investors also saw increases of 51% and 47%, respectively.

As of 2024, over 11,870 Golden Visas had been issued, bringing in more than €2.9 billion in foreign direct investment to the Greek real estate sector.

This influx of capital has had a transformative effect on the market, particularly in cities like Athens and Thessaloniki, where foreign buyers have driven up demand and prices.

According to Enterprise Greece, the Golden Visa program has not only attracted individual investors but also spurred interest from international real estate development companies looking to capitalize on Greece’s recovering economy.

The continuation of this program is expected to further boost the real estate market, with projections indicating a steady increase in both property prices and the number of foreign investments over the coming years.

Challenges and Risks in the Greek Real Estate Market

Economic Uncertainty

Greece’s economy has made significant strides since the financial crisis, but it still faces considerable challenges. The country’s public debt remains one of the highest in the European Union, standing at approximately 177% of GDP as of 2024, according to Eurostat.

High public debt levels can make the economy vulnerable to external shocks and limit the government’s ability to respond to new crises.

Inflationary pressures have also emerged as a concern, with inflation rates hovering around 3.5% in early 2024. This is partly driven by rising energy costs and global supply chain disruptions.

For real estate investors, inflation can erode returns, especially if rental income does not keep pace with rising costs.

Additionally, global economic uncertainties, including potential recessions in key markets like the U.S. and China, could negatively impact foreign investment in Greek real estate, which has been a significant driver of the market’s recovery.

Regulatory and Taxation Considerations

The Greek government has introduced various tax incentives to stimulate the real estate market, such as reductions in the ENFIA property tax and suspensions of VAT on new construction until 2025.

These measures have successfully attracted both domestic and foreign investors, contributing to the market’s growth.

However, the stability of these incentives is not guaranteed. Any future government may reconsider or alter these tax policies, which could affect property values and investor returns.

Investment Opportunities in Greece’s Real Estate Market

Residential Properties in Urban Centers

Investing in residential properties in urban centers like Athens and Thessaloniki presents a lucrative opportunity, particularly as these cities undergo significant urban renewal. In Athens, districts such as Exarchia, Pangrati, and Koukaki have seen a surge in demand for modern, renovated apartments.

This increase is driven by both domestic buyers and international investors seeking properties that offer both long-term rental income and potential for capital appreciation.

The revitalization of these areas has been supported by infrastructure improvements and a growing interest in urban living.

For instance, according to the Bank of Greece, residential property prices in Athens rose by approximately 9.4% in 2023 alone, continuing a trend of strong growth observed over the past several years. Thessaloniki, Greece’s second-largest city, is experiencing similar trends, with property prices increasing by around 7.6% in the same period.

The appeal of these cities is enhanced by their rich cultural heritage, improving public services, and proximity to key business districts.

With Athens and Thessaloniki becoming increasingly attractive to young professionals and expatriates, the demand for high-quality housing is expected to remain robust. This makes residential investments in these cities particularly appealing for those looking to secure stable, long-term returns.

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Tourism-Driven Real Estate

Greece’s thriving tourism industry significantly impacts the real estate market, particularly in popular destinations like Santorini, Mykonos, and Crete. Properties in these areas, often used as short-term rentals, can yield high returns, especially during peak tourist seasons.

For example, in 2023, Mykonos and Santorini recorded rental yields exceeding 10%, among the highest in Europe, according to Government Public Data.

However, investing in tourism-driven real estate requires careful consideration of factors such as seasonality and the operational challenges associated with short-term rentals. The high demand for holiday accommodations during the summer months can lead to significant income, but this must be balanced against potential off-season vacancies and maintenance costs.

Additionally, recent regulations on short-term rentals, such as limits on the number of rental days per year, have been implemented in some areas to protect local housing markets, which investors must navigate carefully.

The rise of platforms like Airbnb has made it easier for investors to enter this market, but competition is fierce, and success often depends on the property’s location, amenities, and the investor’s ability to manage the property effectively.

Commercial Real Estate and Office Spaces

The commercial real estate sector in Greece, particularly in Athens, is gaining momentum as the economy stabilizes and foreign investment increases. The demand for modern office spaces is on the rise, driven by a growing number of tech startups, international companies, and the expansion of existing businesses in the city.

According to Enterprise Greece, the office vacancy rate in prime locations in Athens dropped to around 7% in 2023, down from 12% in 2020, reflecting strong demand.

Investing in commercial properties, especially in central business districts like Syntagma, Kifisia, and Marousi, offers substantial potential returns.

These areas are seeing increasing interest from multinational corporations and startups alike, making them prime locations for office space investments. In 2023, the average rental yield for office spaces in these areas ranged between 6% and 8%, according to data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority.

The development of new commercial projects and the modernization of existing buildings are also contributing to the sector’s growth.

For instance, the completion of the Ellinikon Project, one of Europe’s largest urban redevelopment initiatives, is expected to further boost demand for commercial real estate in Athens, attracting even more international businesses to the area.

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